After 3 Years of Taliban Rule, Life Continues to Get Worse in Afghanistan: Security Expert Warns the Country Is ‘Far More Dangerous Today’ Than Pre-9/11

Introduction

Three years have passed since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan following the U.S. military’s withdrawal in 2021. What was initially seen by some as a potential opportunity for the group to prove they could govern responsibly has instead led to a dire situation in the country. Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, has become increasingly unstable, economically devastated, and socially repressive. Security experts warn that the nation is now “far more dangerous” than it was before the 9/11 attacks that prompted the U.S.-led invasion in 2001.

This article delves into the current state of Afghanistan under Taliban rule, examining the deteriorating security situation, the economic collapse, and the profound impact on the lives of ordinary Afghans. We will also explore the international community’s response and the broader implications for global security.

The Rise of the Taliban: A Brief Recap

The U.S. Withdrawal and the Fall of Kabul

In August 2021, the world watched as the Taliban swiftly retook control of Afghanistan, culminating in the fall of Kabul. The U.S. withdrawal, part of an agreement reached between the Trump administration and the Taliban in 2020, marked the end of nearly two decades of military involvement in the country. The Biden administration, honoring the agreement, oversaw the chaotic evacuation of U.S. personnel and Afghan allies as the Taliban marched into the capital.

The speed with which the Taliban regained power shocked many, and the subsequent collapse of the Afghan government led to widespread fear and uncertainty. While the Taliban promised a more moderate approach to governance compared to their brutal rule in the 1990s, those promises have largely gone unfulfilled.

The Return of Harsh Governance

Once in power, the Taliban quickly reinstated many of the draconian policies that characterized their previous rule. Women’s rights, in particular, have been severely curtailed, with girls banned from attending school beyond the sixth grade, women barred from most forms of employment, and strict dress codes enforced. Public executions, floggings, and other forms of harsh punishment have returned, creating an atmosphere of fear and repression.

The Taliban’s governance has been marked by an inability to provide basic services, rampant corruption, and a lack of legitimacy in the eyes of many Afghans. This has led to growing discontent and, in some cases, resistance to their rule.

The Deteriorating Security Situation

The Resurgence of Terrorist Groups

One of the most alarming developments since the Taliban’s return to power has been the resurgence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The country has once again become a breeding ground for extremist organizations, including al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), a local affiliate of ISIS.

While the Taliban have pledged to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a base for international terrorism, their ability to control these groups is highly questionable. Security experts warn that Afghanistan is now “far more dangerous” than it was before the 9/11 attacks, with the potential for terrorist activities to spread beyond the country’s borders.

ISIS-K’s Growing Threat

Among the most concerning threats is the rise of ISIS-K, which has carried out numerous attacks against both Taliban targets and civilians. The group, which views the Taliban as insufficiently radical, has been responsible for some of the most brutal violence in Afghanistan, including bombings of mosques, schools, and public gatherings.

The Taliban have struggled to contain ISIS-K, and the group’s growing influence has added another layer of complexity to an already volatile security situation. The ongoing conflict between the Taliban and ISIS-K has led to increased violence, further destabilizing the country and making it difficult for any semblance of peace to take hold.

The Risk of International Terrorism

The resurgence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan has raised concerns about the potential for the country to once again serve as a launching pad for international terrorist attacks. While the Taliban have publicly distanced themselves from al-Qaeda and other global jihadist networks, there are credible reports that these groups are rebuilding their presence in Afghanistan.

Intelligence agencies in the U.S. and other countries are closely monitoring the situation, warning that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorists planning attacks against the West. The failure of the Taliban to effectively govern and provide security has only heightened these fears, leading to calls for a renewed focus on counterterrorism efforts in the region.

Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis

A Crumbling Economy

Afghanistan’s economy, already fragile before the Taliban takeover, has collapsed under their rule. The loss of international aid, which previously made up a significant portion of the country’s budget, has crippled the government’s ability to provide basic services. The banking system is in disarray, inflation is soaring, and unemployment is rampant.

The Taliban’s inability to manage the economy has led to widespread poverty and desperation. Millions of Afghans are struggling to survive, with many unable to afford food, medicine, or other essentials. The situation is particularly dire in rural areas, where the collapse of agricultural production has left communities on the brink of starvation.

The Humanitarian Crisis

The economic collapse has triggered a full-blown humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. According to the United Nations, more than half of the country’s population is in need of humanitarian assistance, with millions facing acute food insecurity. The healthcare system is on the verge of collapse, with hospitals lacking basic supplies and healthcare workers going unpaid.

Children are among the hardest hit by the crisis. Malnutrition rates are skyrocketing, and the closure of schools has deprived millions of children, particularly girls, of their right to education. The long-term consequences of this crisis are likely to be devastating, with a generation of Afghans growing up in extreme poverty and without access to basic services.

The Plight of Women and Minorities

Women and minorities have borne the brunt of the Taliban’s repressive policies. The restrictions on women’s rights have had a profound impact on their ability to participate in society, with many forced into seclusion and unable to work or attend school. This has not only undermined the progress made over the past two decades but has also contributed to the country’s economic collapse, as women are unable to contribute to the workforce.

Ethnic and religious minorities, including Hazaras, Tajiks, and Sikhs, have also faced persecution under Taliban rule. Reports of targeted violence, forced displacement, and discrimination are widespread, further deepening the country’s divisions and fueling resentment against the Taliban.

International Response: A Strained Relationship

Diplomatic Isolation

The Taliban’s return to power has left Afghanistan diplomatically isolated. While some countries, including China and Russia, have engaged with the Taliban in limited ways, the international community has largely refused to recognize the group as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. This has left the Taliban without access to critical financial resources, including the country’s foreign reserves, which remain frozen in overseas accounts.

The lack of international recognition has also hampered efforts to provide humanitarian aid to the country. While aid organizations have continued to operate in Afghanistan, they face significant challenges in delivering assistance, particularly in areas controlled by the Taliban. The Taliban’s failure to meet international demands for human rights protections and the formation of an inclusive government has only deepened their isolation.

The Role of Neighboring Countries

Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Pakistan, Iran, and the Central Asian republics, have been deeply affected by the situation in the country. The instability in Afghanistan has led to an influx of refugees into neighboring countries, putting a strain on their resources and infrastructure. Additionally, the rise of terrorist groups in Afghanistan has raised concerns about regional security, with fears that violence could spill over into neighboring states.

Pakistan, in particular, has a complex relationship with the Taliban. While Islamabad has historically supported the group, the resurgence of violence in Afghanistan has created challenges for Pakistan’s security and political stability. The Pakistani government is now grappling with how to manage its relationship with the Taliban while addressing the growing threat of terrorism within its own borders.

The U.S. and NATO: A Difficult Legacy

The U.S. and its NATO allies face a difficult legacy in Afghanistan. The decision to withdraw from the country, while supported by many as a necessary end to a long and costly conflict, has been widely criticized for the way it was executed. The rapid collapse of the Afghan government and the return of the Taliban have raised questions about the effectiveness of the two-decade-long military and nation-building efforts.

The U.S. has continued to monitor the situation in Afghanistan from afar, relying on over-the-horizon counterterrorism capabilities to address threats emanating from the country. However, the lack of a physical presence in Afghanistan has limited the ability of the U.S. to gather intelligence and respond to emerging threats.

NATO allies, many of whom also contributed troops and resources to the Afghan mission, are grappling with similar challenges. The withdrawal has strained relationships within the alliance, particularly as member states assess the long-term impact of the mission and the lessons learned from the experience.

The Future of Afghanistan: What Lies Ahead?

A Country in Crisis

As Afghanistan marks three years under Taliban rule, the country is in a state of deep crisis. The combination of a deteriorating security situation, economic collapse, and humanitarian disaster has created a perfect storm of challenges that the Taliban are ill-equipped to address.

The prospects for meaningful change under the Taliban appear bleak. The group has shown little willingness to compromise or reform, and its continued repression of women and minorities suggests that the situation will only worsen. The lack of international recognition and support further complicates efforts to address the crisis, leaving Afghanistan isolated and vulnerable.

The Risk of Civil War

There are growing concerns that Afghanistan could descend into civil war if the Taliban are unable to maintain control. Resistance movements, including the National Resistance Front (NRF), have already begun to challenge Taliban rule in some parts of the country. While these

movements are currently limited in scope, they could gain strength as dissatisfaction with the Taliban grows.

The risk of civil war is exacerbated by the presence of multiple armed groups, including ISIS-K and other militant factions. The ongoing conflict between these groups and the Taliban has the potential to spiral into a broader conflict, further destabilizing the country and creating additional challenges for the international community.

The Role of the International Community

The international community faces difficult choices in responding to the situation in Afghanistan. While there is broad consensus on the need to address the humanitarian crisis, there is less agreement on how to engage with the Taliban. Some countries advocate for a pragmatic approach that involves limited engagement with the group to facilitate aid delivery and address security concerns. Others argue that any engagement with the Taliban legitimizes their rule and undermines efforts to promote human rights and democracy in the country.

Ultimately, the international community will need to find a way to balance these competing priorities. This will require careful diplomacy, sustained humanitarian efforts, and a renewed focus on counterterrorism to prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a global security threat.

Conclusion

Three years after the Taliban’s return to power, Afghanistan is in a state of profound crisis. The country is more dangerous, more impoverished, and more repressive than it was before the U.S. invasion in 2001. The Taliban’s inability to govern effectively, coupled with the resurgence of terrorist groups and the collapse of the economy, has created a situation that threatens not only the future of Afghanistan but also regional and global security.

As the world watches the unfolding disaster in Afghanistan, the need for a coordinated and compassionate response has never been more urgent. While the challenges are immense, the international community cannot afford to turn its back on the Afghan people. The lessons of the past must inform the actions of the future, and a renewed commitment to peace, security, and human rights is essential if Afghanistan is to have any hope of recovery.

The stakes are high, and the world must act before it is too late.